On December 27, 2024, a new asteroid was discovered that could potentially hit Earth in 2032. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters and belongs to the Apollo group of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). According to calculations by NASA and ESA, there is a 2.3% chance that this space rock will hit Earth on December 22, 2032.
While the chance of impact may seem small, this discovery has alarmed scientists worldwide. What does this mean for Earth? What can we do to prepare? And how significant is the actual risk?
What Do We Know about Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Origin and Orbit
Asteroid 2024 YR4 follows an Earth-crossing orbit. This type of asteroid, an Apollo asteroid, has an orbital period of 4.05 years around the sun. The asteroid was first observed by the ATLAS project in Chile, a network of telescopes that monitors celestial bodies that pose a potential risk.
Measurements and computer models from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) indicate that 2024 YR4’s orbit could potentially put us at risk in 2032.
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How Can Scientists Predict if an Asteroid Will Hit Earth?
Predicting a possible impact of an asteroid like 2024 YR4 is a complex process that uses advanced technology and mathematical models. Scientists calculate an asteroid’s orbit based on various factors:
- Orbit observation – Once an asteroid is discovered, astronomers track it for multiple nights using telescopes to accurately map its movement.
- Gravitational influences – The gravity of planets, the sun, and even other asteroids can cause small changes in the orbit. Scientists account for these in their calculations.
- Computer simulations – Supercomputers generate millions of scenarios to calculate how the asteroid will move in the coming years.
- Risk assessment using the Torino Scale – The impact probability is expressed as a number on the Torino Scale, which classifies the danger of an asteroid from 0 (no risk) to 10 (catastrophic impact).
How are Asteroids Discovered and Tracked?
The discovery of new asteroids like 2024 YR4 happens through automated telescopes and specialized observatory programs worldwide. Some of the key systems and methods for detecting asteroids are:
🛰 Space telescopes and observatories
- NEO Surveyor (NASA “’s upcoming mission)” – A space telescope specifically designed to find dangerous Near-Earth Objects (NEOs).
- ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) – This network of telescopes in Hawaii and Chile scans the sky for fast-moving objects.
- Pan-STARRS (Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System) – This system detects objects in space and tracks their orbit.
🔭 Earth-based telescopes and astronomical networks
- Catalina Sky Survey – An observatory focused on finding dangerous asteroids.
- ESA’s Flyeye Telescope – A telescope designed to systematically scan the sky for unknown space rocks.
- Amateur astronomers and citizen science projects – Even amateur astronomers can contribute to asteroid detection by reporting observations to professional astronomers.
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What Would Happen in Case of an Impact?
Energy and Impact Force
If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the released energy would be estimated between 5 and 20 megatons of TNT. This is comparable to the Tunguska explosion in 1908, where an asteroid of similar size destroyed an area of 2,000 square kilometers of forest in Siberia.
If the asteroid were to explode over an urban area, such as Paris, New York, or Tokyo, the consequences would be catastrophic.
What is Being Done to Minimize the Risk?
NASA and ESA are closely monitoring the asteroid. Possible strategies to deflect 2024 YR4 include:
🛰 Kinetic impact – Crashing a space probe into the asteroid to change its orbit. 🛸 Gravity tractor – Positioning a spacecraft near the asteroid to gradually modify its orbit. 💥 Nuclear explosion in space – Detonating a nuclear charge at a safe distance to deflect the asteroid.
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Conclusion
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a reminder of how vulnerable our planet is to cosmic events. While the chance of impact is small, this proves that monitoring and planetary defense are essential for humanity’s future.
Scientists continue to track the asteroid’s trajectory and work on possible defense strategies. One thing is certain: space remains unpredictable, but with proper preparations, we don’t have to watch helplessly.
